For the time being, this will be the new format, showing only the basic U.S. stock index momentum, the bullish reversals in ETFs and bullish reversals in stocks. I will periodically comment on major issues at critical times, but during the time I am attempting to build the algorithm required to download signals from almost 1300 stocks that I have built models for using NeuroShell Day Trader Professional, this is what I will leave you with. Most who have commented (and I have received, thankfully lots of comments with great appreciation to readers) want to see the reversals and not necessarily trade signals I generate. That makes life simpler for me, though at some point I will discuss methodology for building your own models. For now, I will present the data with little commentary. I will always respond to readers’ comments. This blog will steadily evolve as the time I have and the technology I use evolves. Thanks for your patience during this transition.
$INDU $SPX $COMPQ $RUT
Monthly Momentum Pos Pos Pos Pos
Weekly Momentum Pos (OB) Pos (OB) Pos (OB) Pos (OB)
Daily Momentum Neg (OB) Neg Pos (OB) Neg
N means neutral, Neg means negative, Pos means positive (OS) means oversold and (OB) means overbought. The value to price estimate (it is not a guarantee, only a cash flow based estimate) can be defined loosely as a multiplier of price. A number higher than one means the stock is undervalued using this model and a number less than one means the stock is overvalued.
Index and ETF I-shares Bullish Reversals (Note: to look up quotes for the Dow Indexes (starting with DJ or DW, add a dollar sign. No dollar sign is required for the ETFs beginning with other letters.) Today’s list includes only those ETFs with a 50-day moving average of daily volume greater than 100,000 shares:
|PwrShs DWATech||PDP||xN||ETFs (US\MidCap)||ETFs|
The stocks listed below are ranked by pattern bullish reversals based on a momentum indicator. Each stock by sector is listed with the cheapest stocks on a near-free-cash-flow value/price basis at the top, and more expensive stocks on that basis farther down each sector list (they are listed alphabetically):
|Commercl Mtls||CMC||xN||Metal Prds (Pipe\Fab\Misc)||Metal Products|
|Universal Tech||UTI||xN||Business Svc (Schools)||Business Svc|
|Pharma ProdDev||PPDI||xO||Healthcare (Med\Den Suply)||Healthcare|
|Broadridge Finl||BR||xN||Business Svc (Misc)||Business Svc|
|Alkermes Inc||ALKS||xO||Drug (Biomedical\Genetic)||Drug|
|Accretive Hlth||AH||N||Business Svc (Misc)||Business Svc|
Stocks that almost passed the neural net screens but just missed: None
Note: U.S. equity markets continue to be extended, and yesterday after hours many tech leaders felt the pain of either disappointing cash flows (VMW), or just profit taking (IBM). The continuing point is that tech is divergent from the rest of the market and probably needs to take a rest. Most of the bullish reversals (and there were not many) were in healthcare, healthcare services, or education.
I hate to be repetitive, but a good multiday selloff would not hurt this market, and should be a boon to swing traders assuming institutional volume stays up. Even some tech names might offer up new buy points in such a scenario. That is why I remain patient for my set-ups to show up. When they do, they are reasonably likely to make money, as GTIV recently did.
UTI is marginally favored as a long entry with tradable statistics over the next few days. Again, we need to watch action closely as the market is extended, but the model favors it with nearly a decade of trading experience within the model.
Just stay focused and keep your capital ready for the opportunities when they arrive.