These articles describe the statistical probabilities of long positions on these equities, based on neural net projections, for the next 5-15 trading days. These are not holy grail methodologies, the road to easy street, or anything else. These projections are the result of screening for technically significant retracement and momentum patterns that have been further screened for value and bullish sector performance. In other words, the projections are for long positions.
For 03/02/2010:
$INDU $SPX $COMPQ $RUT
Monthly Momentum Neg (OB) Neg (OB) Neg Neg
Weekly Momentum Pos Pos Pos Pos
Daily Momentum Pos Pos Pos Pos
N means neutral, Neg means negative, Pos means positive (OS) means oversold and (OB) means overbought. The value to price estimate (it is not a guarantee, only a cash flow based estimate) can be defined loosely as a multiplier of price. A number higher than one means the stock is undervalued using this model and a number less than one means the stock is overvalued.
Index and ETF I-shares Bullish Reversals (Note: to look up quotes for the Dow Indexes (starting with DJ or DW, add a dollar sign. No dollar sign is required for the ETFs beginning with other letters.) Today’s list includes only those ETFs with a 50-day moving average of daily volume greater than 100,000 shares.
ETFs should be back tomorrow pending full restoration of the database.
DJUSCA
The stocks that demonstrated bullish pattern reversals are shown below. The stock at the top of the sector list is the cheapest on a price to near-free-cash-flow basis, the stock at the bottom of the sector list is the most expensive on a price to near-free-cash-flow basis.
| Company |
Symbol |
Exch. |
Industry |
Sector |
| Oxford Inds |
OXM |
xN |
Apparel (Clothing) |
Apparel |
| Texas Capital |
TCBI |
xO |
Bank (West\Swst) |
Bank |
| Univrsl ForPrd |
UFPI |
xO |
Building (Wood Products) |
Building |
| Apogee Entrp |
APOG |
xO |
Building (Products\Misc) |
Building |
| D R Horton Inc |
DHI |
xN |
Building (Residentl\Comml) |
Building |
| Toll Brothers |
TOL |
xN |
Building (Residentl\Comml) |
Building |
| Winnebago Ind |
WGO |
xN |
Building (Mobile\Mfg\RV) |
Building |
| M & F Worldwide |
MFW |
xN |
Business Svc (Misc) |
Business Svc |
| Hewitt Ass Inc |
HEW |
xN |
Business Svc (Misc) |
Business Svc |
| China Fire&Sec |
CFSG |
xO |
Business Svc (Sec\Safety) |
Business Svc |
| Emergency Med |
EMS |
xN |
Business Svc (Sec\Safety) |
Business Svc |
| PHH Corp |
PHH |
xN |
Business Svc (Leasing) |
Business Svc |
| Sykes Enterprs |
SYKE |
xO |
Business Svc (Misc) |
Business Svc |
| Towers Watson |
TW |
N |
Business Svc (Misc) |
Business Svc |
| Compass Dvrsfd |
CODI |
O |
Business Svc (Staffing) |
Business Svc |
| Ventiv Health |
VTIV |
xO |
Business Svc (Healthcare) |
Business Svc |
| Kforce Inc |
KFRC |
O |
Business Svc (Staffing) |
Business Svc |
| NewMarket |
NEU |
xN |
Chemical (Specialty) |
Chemical |
| Gulf Resrcs |
GFRE |
xO |
Chemical (Specialty) |
Chemical |
| Intrepid Potash |
IPI |
xN |
Chemical (Fertilizers) |
Chemical |
| Network Aplnce |
NTAP |
xO |
Computer (Memory Devices) |
Computer |
| Compellent Tech |
CML |
xN |
Computer (Memory Devices) |
Computer |
| BWAY Holding |
BWY |
N |
Container (Metal\Glass) |
Container |
| Carlisle Cos |
CSL |
xN |
Diversified Companies |
Diversified Companies |
| Panansonic Corp |
PC |
xN |
Diversified Companies |
Diversified Companies |
| Hi-Tech Pharm |
HITK |
xO |
Drug (Generic) |
Drug |
| Merck & Co |
MRK |
xN |
Drug (Ethical) |
Drug |
| Pfizer Inc |
PFE |
xN |
Drug (Ethical) |
Drug |
| Illumina Inc |
ILMN |
xO |
Drug (Biomedical\Genetic) |
Drug |
| Targacept Inc |
TRGT |
xO |
Drug (Biomedical\Genetic) |
Drug |
| Seattle Gentcs |
SGEN |
xO |
Drug (Biomedical\Genetic) |
Drug |
| Auxilium Pharma |
AUXL |
xO |
Drug (Ethical) |
Drug |
| MAP Pharm |
MAPP |
xO |
Drug (Ethical) |
Drug |
| InterMune Inc |
ITMN |
xO |
Drug (Biomedical\Genetic) |
Drug |
| Medivation Inc |
MDVN |
xO |
Drug (Biomedical\Genetic) |
Drug |
| Incyte Corp |
INCY |
xO |
Drug (Biomedical\Genetic) |
Drug |
| Corning Inc |
GLW |
xN |
Electronic (Misc Products) |
Electronic |
| Sigma Designs |
SIGM |
xO |
Electronic (Semicndtr Mfg) |
Electronic |
| K L A-Tencor |
KLAC |
xO |
Electronic (Semicndtr Eqp) |
Electronic |
| EnerNOC Inc |
ENOC |
xO |
Electrical (Equipment) |
Electronic |
| Comverge Inc |
COMV |
xO |
Electrical (Equipment) |
Electronic |
| N V D I A Corp |
NVDA |
xO |
Electronic (Semicndtr Mfg) |
Electronic |
| YanzhouCoal Mng |
YZC |
xN |
Energy (Coal) |
Energy |
| GlobalPymntsInc |
GPN |
xN |
Financial (Credit Servcs) |
Financial |
| Molson Coors |
TAP |
xN |
Food (Bev-Alcoholic) |
Food |
| Cheescake Fact |
CAKE |
xO |
Food (Restaurant) |
Food |
| Cyberonics |
CYBX |
xO |
Healthcare (Products) |
Healthcare |
| American MdSys |
AMMD |
xO |
Healthcare (Products) |
Healthcare |
| Inverness Med |
IMA |
xA |
Healthcare (Products) |
Healthcare |
| Centene Corp |
CNC |
xN |
Healthcare (HMO) |
Healthcare |
| Lifepoint Hstl |
LPNT |
xO |
Healthcare (Hospitals) |
Healthcare |
| Pharma ProdDev |
PPDI |
xO |
Healthcare (Med\Den Suply) |
Healthcare |
| Abaxis Inc |
ABAX |
xO |
Healthcare (Instruments) |
Healthcare |
| AGA Medical |
AGAM |
xO |
Healthcare (Products) |
Healthcare |
| F E I Co |
FEIC |
xO |
Instruments (Scientific) |
Instruments |
| PerkinElmer |
PKI |
xN |
Instruments (Scientific) |
Instruments |
| Teradyne Inc |
TER |
xN |
Instruments (Scientific) |
Instruments |
| AsiaInfo Hldgs |
ASIA |
xO |
Internet (Network) |
Internet |
| InfoSpace Inc |
INSP |
xO |
Internet (Svc Provider) |
Internet |
| Equinix Inc |
EQIX |
xO |
Internet (Network) |
Internet |
| Yahoo! Inc |
YHOO |
xO |
Internet (Svc Provider) |
Internet |
| Digital River |
DRIV |
xO |
Internet (Network) |
Internet |
| Switch & Data |
SDXC |
xO |
Internet (Network) |
Internet |
| Savvis Comm |
SVVS |
xO |
Internet (Network) |
Internet |
| Cedar Fair LP |
FUN |
xN |
Leisure (Services) |
Leisure |
| Int’l Game Tch |
IGT |
xN |
Leisure (Gaming) |
Leisure |
| Fuel Systems |
FSYS |
xO |
Machinery (Industrial) |
Machinery |
| Colfax Corp |
CFX |
xN |
Machinery (Industrial) |
Machinery |
| Eaton VanceTax |
ETG |
N |
Market (ClsdEndFndsDom) |
Market |
| New YorkTimes |
NYT |
xN |
Media (Newspapers) |
Media |
| Gibraltar Stl |
ROCK |
xO |
Metal Prds (Pipe\Fab\Misc) |
Metal Products |
| Mueller Inds |
MLI |
xN |
Metal Prds (Pipe\Fab\Misc) |
Metal Products |
| Yamana Gold |
AUY |
xA |
Mining (Gold\Silver) |
Mining |
| Pitney Bowes |
PBI |
xN |
Office (Equip\Automation) |
Office |
| Clearwater Ppr |
CLW |
xN |
Paper |
Paper |
| Amer Greetgs |
AM |
xN |
Personal (Consumer Prods) |
Personal |
| Resolute Engy |
REN |
A |
Petroleum (U S Explr\Prod) |
Petroleum |
| Energy Trnsfr |
ETE |
xN |
Petroleum (Prod\Pipeline) |
Petroleum |
| Atwood Oceanic |
ATW |
xN |
Petroleum (Drilling) |
Petroleum |
| Carbo Ceramics |
CRR |
xN |
Petroleum (Mach\Equipment) |
Petroleum |
| Apache Corp |
APA |
xN |
Petroleum (U S Explr\Prod) |
Petroleum |
| Cobalt Int’l |
CIE |
xN |
Petroleum (Intl Integrted) |
Petroleum |
| Rayonier Inc |
RYN |
xN |
REIT (Equity) |
REIT |
| Redwood Trust |
RWT |
xN |
REIT (Mortgage) |
REIT |
| CarMax Group |
KMX |
xN |
Retail (Auto Parts) |
Retail |
| First Cash Fin |
FCFS |
xO |
Retail (Misc\Diversified) |
Retail |
| Adv’d Auto Prt |
AAP |
xN |
Retail (Auto Parts) |
Retail |
| Ulta Salon |
ULTA |
O |
Retail (Misc\Diversified) |
Retail |
| Asbury Auto Gp |
ABG |
xN |
Retail (Auto Parts) |
Retail |
| Talbot’s Inc |
TLB |
xN |
Retail (Apparel) |
Retail |
| Activision |
ATVI |
xO |
Software (Educ\Entr) |
Software |
| Dealertrack |
TRAK |
xO |
Software (Business) |
Software |
| Kenexa Corp |
KNXA |
xN |
Software (Business) |
Software |
| Arris Grp |
ARRS |
xO |
Telecomm (Equipment) |
Telecomm |
| Oplink CommInc |
OPLK |
xO |
Telecomm (FiberOptics) |
Telecomm |
| K V H Inds |
KVHI |
O |
Telecomm (Cellular) |
Telecomm |
| Belden CDT Inc |
BDC |
xN |
Telecomm (Equipment) |
Telecomm |
| Kirby Corp |
KEX |
xN |
Transportation (Ship) |
Transportation |
| Freightcar Amer |
RAIL |
xO |
Transportation (Equip Mfg) |
Transportation |
| D P L Inc |
DPL |
xN |
Utility (Electric) |
Utility |
| Wisconsin Eny |
WEC |
xN |
Utility (Electric) |
Utility |
| NSTAR |
NST |
xN |
Utility (Electric) |
Utility |
| Consol Edison |
ED |
xN |
Utility (Electric) |
Utility |
| Otter Tail Cp |
OTTR |
xO |
Utility (Electric) |
Utility |
| Southrn Co |
SO |
xN |
Utility (Electric) |
Utility |
| Exelon Corp |
EXC |
xN |
Utility (Electric) |
Utility |
| NV Energy |
NVE |
xN |
Utility (Electric) |
Utility |
| Entergy Corp |
ETR |
xN |
Utility (Electric) |
Utility |
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Stocks that were close to passing net screens but just missed: NVDA
Markets settled in for more gains after the rally on Friday. Once again, drugs, utilities, semiconductor equipment, healthcare, petroleum exploration, telecom, internet network and service providers made the list in large numbers. Still, the sector leadership in the bullish reversals hasn’t changed much over the last few weeks. Only two names passed the neural net list, though NVDA got close. We still need to monitor healthcare, drugs, and niche semiconductor-related names for outperformance, but again, earnings could be critical and could blow up some of the higher priced names on disappointing earnings.
Here is what passed the neural net screens:
Value/Price est. 7 day ATR %( 7 day ATR)/Close
(O) HITK 3.65/1 65.0% 2.22 1.16 5.08
(O) KMX 8.27.1 83.3% 2.07 0.38 3.56
Note (O): optionable
*Beta greater than 1.5, Volume greater than 1 million shares on a 50-day simple moving average volume basis.
To repeat yesterdays comments (as I feel they will hold until we see what happens this week).
MOMENTUM INDICATORS ARE BEARISH on a MONTHLY basis now, so caution is still advised from the long side. This further emphasizes the need for new highs to be taken out, or the rally as we have seen from March 2009 could indeed stall out for awhile.
Right now, the short-term world is bullish, and if you see bullish trades that meet ALL criteria for your trading plan, then take your shot. MAKE SURE, however, that you are using stops and taking profits at appropriate levels.
Until we take out recent index highs, this rally is likely to be tenuous at best. Use your head. Crowds are often wrong.
Take care,
DBB
Tagged as:
Buffalo Trader Bullish Reversal Report,
Fibonacci ratio analysis,
price pattern analysis,
sector analysis,
value analysis
