These articles describe the statistical probabilities of long positions on these equities, based on neural net projections, for the next 5-15 trading days. These are not holy grail methodologies, the road to easy street, or anything else. These projections are the result of screening for technically significant retracement and momentum patterns that have been further screened for value and bullish sector performance. In other words, the projections are for long positions.
For 03/05/2010:
$INDU $SPX $COMPQ $RUT
Monthly Momentum Neg (OB) Pos (OB) Neg Pos
Weekly Momentum Pos Pos Pos Pos
Daily Momentum Pos Pos Pos Pos
N means neutral, Neg means negative, Pos means positive (OS) means oversold and (OB) means overbought. The value to price estimate (it is not a guarantee, only a cash flow based estimate) can be defined loosely as a multiplier of price. A number higher than one means the stock is undervalued using this model and a number less than one means the stock is overvalued.
Index and ETF I-shares Bullish Reversals (Note: to look up quotes for the Dow Indexes (starting with DJ or DW, add a dollar sign. No dollar sign is required for the ETFs beginning with other letters.) Today’s list includes only those ETFs with a 50-day moving average of daily volume greater than 100,000 shares.
ETFs should be back in 10 days pending full restoration of the database.
The stocks that demonstrated bullish pattern reversals are shown below. The stock at the top of the sector list is the cheapest on a price to near-free-cash-flow basis, the stock at the bottom of the sector list is the most expensive on a price to near-free-cash-flow basis.
| Company | Symbol | Exch. | Industry | Sector |
| Hancock Hldg | HBHC | xO | Bank (Southeast) | Bank |
| BOK Finl | BOKF | xO | Bank (West\Swst) | Bank |
| Martin MarMtls | MLM | xN | Building (Cement Etc.) | Building |
| Coinstar Inc | CSTR | xO | Business Svc (Misc) | Business Svc |
| Amer Sci&Engr | ASEI | xO | Business Svc (Sec\Safety) | Business Svc |
| Cintas Corp | CTAS | xO | Business Svc (Misc) | Business Svc |
| Cogent Inc | COGT | xO | Business Svc (Sec\Safety) | Business Svc |
| TrueBlue Inc | TBI | xN | Business Svc (Staffing) | Business Svc |
| Kaman Corp ClA | KAMN | xO | Diversified Companies | Diversified Companies |
| OmniVsion Tech | OVTI | xO | Electronic (Semicndtr Mfg) | Electronic |
| ProShrsShortEmr | EUM | A | ETFs (Short) | ETFs |
| PwrShrsDBGldSht | DZZ | N | ETFs (Short) | ETFs |
| Altisource Port | ASPS | xO | Financial (Management) | Financial |
| Chiquita Brnd | CQB | xN | Food (Prepared) | Food |
| Amer Int’lGrp | AIG | xN | Insurance (General) | Insurance |
| Protective Lfe | PL | xN | Insurance (Life) | Insurance |
| Sina Corp | SINA | xO | Internet (Svc Provider) | Internet |
| Avis Budget Grp | CAR | xN | Leisure (Services) | Leisure |
| Blackrck HiIncm | HIS | N | Market (ClsdEndFndsDom) | Market |
| Nutri Systems | NTRI | xO | Personal (Cosmetics) | Personal |
| Winthrop Rlty | FUR | N | REIT (Equity) | REIT |
| Best Buy | BBY | xN | Retail (Consumer Elect) | Retail |
| Aeropostale | ARO | xN | Retail (Apparel) | Retail |
| Bank (Jos A) | JOSB | xO | Retail (Apparel) | Retail |
| Sears Holdings | SHLD | xO | Retail (Major Chains) | Retail |
| Vitamin Shoppe | VSI | xN | Retail (Misc\Diversified) | Retail |
| Phase Forward | PFWD | xO | Software (Healthcare) | Software |
| American WtrWks | AWK | xN | Utility (Water Supply) | Utility |
Stocks that were close to passing net screens but just missed: SHLD, AIG, ASPS, VSI
U.S. equity markets continued a relatively anemic performance on Thursday ahead of the employment numbers, which, we have found out this morning, were better than expected, but still showed a shedding of jobs. I think the bigger picture is valuation, though, if momentum goes up, one must probably follow it up paying special attention to risk management. Retail continued to show strength yesterday, as did security services once again.
Nets bailed on everything though.
Here is what passed the neural net screens:
Value/Price est. 7 day ATR %( 7 day ATR)/Close
Nothing today.
Note (O): optionable*
Beta greater than 1.5, Volume greater than 1 million shares on a 50-day simple moving average volume basis.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS are now flickering once again between bullishness and bearishness. I still think this rally could be contained, but we need to let the trends establish themselves before trading. If we do not take out these regional highs with force, we may see the markets languish as we head toward summer. I do not like valuations either, but markets do what they do, and pundits keep yapping.
If you have long or short positions, use your head and manage risks and stops. The next few weeks (into early May) will likely determine the course of the rest of the year. Monthly Fibonacci pattern still appear bearish. Only time will tell.
Take care,
DBB
