These articles describe the statistical probabilities of long positions on these equities, based on neural net projections, for the next 5-15 trading days. These are not holy grail methodologies, the road to easy street, or anything else. These projections are the result of screening for technically significant retracement and momentum patterns that have been further screened for value and bullish sector performance. In other words, the projections are for long positions.
For 03/08/2010:
$INDU $SPX $COMPQ $RUT
Monthly Momentum Neg Neg Neg Pos
Weekly Momentum Pos Pos Pos Pos
Daily Momentum Pos Pos (OB) Pos (OB) Pos (OB)
N means neutral, Neg means negative, Pos means positive (OS) means oversold and (OB) means overbought. The value to price estimate (it is not a guarantee, only a cash flow based estimate) can be defined loosely as a multiplier of price. A number higher than one means the stock is undervalued using this model and a number less than one means the stock is overvalued.
Index and ETF I-shares Bullish Reversals (Note: to look up quotes for the Dow Indexes (starting with DJ or DW, add a dollar sign. No dollar sign is required for the ETFs beginning with other letters.) Today’s list includes only those ETFs with a 50-day moving average of daily volume greater than 100,000 shares.
ETFs should be back in 10 days pending full restoration of the database.
The stocks that demonstrated bullish pattern reversals are shown below. The stock at the top of the sector list is the cheapest on a price to near-free-cash-flow basis, the stock at the bottom of the sector list is the most expensive on a price to near-free-cash-flow basis.
| Company | Symbol | Exch. | Industry | Sector |
| Lockheed Martn | LMT | xN | Aerospace & Defense (Mfrs) | Aerospace & Defense |
| G III Apparel | GIII | xO | Apparel (Clothing) | Apparel |
| Wonder AutoTech | WATG | xO | Auto & Truck (OEM) | Auto & Truck |
| P N C Finc’l | PNC | xN | Bank (Multi Regional) | Bank |
| PrivateBancorp | PVTB | xO | Bank (Midwest) | Bank |
| BancorpSouth | BXS | xN | Bank (Southeast) | Bank |
| S & T Bancorp | STBA | xO | Bank (Northeast) | Bank |
| B B & T Corp | BBT | xN | Bank (Multi Regional) | Bank |
| City Nat’l | CYN | xN | Bank (West\Swst) | Bank |
| Armstrong World | AWI | xN | Building (Products\Misc) | Building |
| MYR Group | MYRG | xO | Building (Maint & Svc) | Building |
| Lennar Corp A | LEN | xN | Building (Residentl\Comml) | Building |
| Texas Inds | TXI | xN | Building (Cement Etc.) | Building |
| Broadridge Finl | BR | xN | Business Svc (Misc) | Business Svc |
| AutomaticData | ADP | xN | Business Svc (Misc) | Business Svc |
| Correctns Corp | CXW | xN | Business Svc (Sec\Safety) | Business Svc |
| HMS Holdings | HMSY | xO | Business Svc (Healthcare) | Business Svc |
| MacquarieInfra | MIC | xN | Business Svc (Misc) | Business Svc |
| Clear Channel | CCO | xN | Business Svc (Advertising) | Business Svc |
| Nat’l Cinemedia | NCMI | xO | Business Svc (Advertising) | Business Svc |
| A U OptrncsADR | AUO | xN | Computer (Peripheral Eqp) | Computer |
| Synopsys Inc | SNPS | xO | Computer (Graphics) | Computer |
| Medicis PhrmA | MRX | xN | Drug (Ethical) | Drug |
| Bristol-MySqb | BMY | xN | Drug (Ethical) | Drug |
| Pfizer Inc | PFE | xN | Drug (Ethical) | Drug |
| Emergent Biosln | EBS | xN | Drug (Biomedical\Genetic) | Drug |
| Regenrn Pharm | REGN | xO | Drug (Biomedical\Genetic) | Drug |
| Texas Instr | TXN | xN | Electronic (Semicndtr Mfg) | Electronic |
| Taiwan Semi ADS | TSM | xN | Electronic (Semicndtr Mfg) | Electronic |
| Corning Inc | GLW | xN | Electronic (Misc Products) | Electronic |
| EnerNOC Inc | ENOC | xO | Electrical (Equipment) | Electronic |
| N V D I A Corp | NVDA | xO | Electronic (Semicndtr Mfg) | Electronic |
| iShr MSAus | EWO | A | ETFs (Foreign\Country) | ETFs |
| iShr MSCI Chile | ECH | xA | ETFs (Foreign\Country) | ETFs |
| Jeffries Grp | JEF | xN | Financial (Brokers) | Financial |
| Blackrock Inc | BLK | xN | Financial (Management) | Financial |
| World Accept | WRLD | xO | Financial (Consumer Loans) | Financial |
| Lance Inc | LNCE | xO | Food (Prepared) | Food |
| CentralEuroDst | CEDC | xO | Food (Bev-Alcoholic) | Food |
| AlmstFamily Inc | AFAM | xO | Healthcare (Outpnt\HmCare) | Healthcare |
| Humana Inc | HUM | xN | Healthcare (HMO) | Healthcare |
| Health Net Inc | HNT | xN | Healthcare (HMO) | Healthcare |
| Netease.com | NTES | xO | Internet (Svc Provider) | Internet |
| Changyou.com | CYOU | xO | Internet (Software) | Internet |
| Sohu.com Inc | SOHU | xO | Internet (Svc Provider) | Internet |
| Ameritrade | AMTD | xO | Internet (E:Commerce) | Internet |
| Equinix Inc | EQIX | xO | Internet (Network) | Internet |
| Digital River | DRIV | xO | Internet (Network) | Internet |
| Marriott Int’l | MAR | xN | Leisure (Htls\Mtls) | Leisure |
| Briggs & Strn | BGG | xN | Machinery (Industrial) | Machinery |
| Sauer-Danforss | SHS | N | Machinery (Industrial) | Machinery |
| Blackrock Globl | BOE | N | Market (ClsdEndFndsFrgn) | Market |
| Insured MuniFnd | PIF | N | Market (ClsdEndFndsDom) | Market |
| Scripps Netwrks | SNI | xN | Media (Television) | Media |
| Questar Corp | STR | xN | Petroleum (U S Explr\Prod) | Petroleum |
| Walter Invest | WAC | xA | Real Estate Management | Real Estate Management |
| E-House China | EJ | xN | Real Estate Management | Real Estate Management |
| Nat’l HlthInv | NHI | N | REIT (Equity) | REIT |
| Omega Hlthcre | OHI | xN | REIT (Equity) | REIT |
| L T C Pptys | LTC | xN | REIT (Equity) | REIT |
| Post Pptys | PPS | xN | REIT (Equity) | REIT |
| Parkway Pptys | PKY | xN | REIT (Equity) | REIT |
| Hosptlty PrpTr | HPT | xN | REIT (Equity) | REIT |
| Realty Income | O | xN | REIT (Equity) | REIT |
| Health CreREIT | HCN | xN | REIT (Equity) | REIT |
| Kimco Realty | KIM | xN | REIT (Equity) | REIT |
| Natnwde HltPpy | NHP | xN | REIT (Equity) | REIT |
| Duke Rlty Corp | DRE | xN | REIT (Equity) | REIT |
| Kilroy Realty | KRC | xN | REIT (Equity) | REIT |
| Home Ppty | HME | xN | REIT (Equity) | REIT |
| 99 Cents Only | NDN | xN | Retail (Discount\Variety) | Retail |
| Kohls Corp | KSS | xN | Retail (Department Stores) | Retail |
| Dick’s SptgGds | DKS | xN | Retail (Misc\Diversified) | Retail |
| Signet Grp ADR | SIG | xO | Retail (Jewelry) | Retail |
| Talbot’s Inc | TLB | xN | Retail (Apparel) | Retail |
| Quest Software | QSFT | xO | Software (Business) | Software |
| Longtop Fin’l | LFT | xN | Software (Financial) | Software |
| PegaSystems | PEGA | xO | Software (Financial) | Software |
| Synchronoss Tch | SNCR | xO | Software (Business) | Software |
| Commvault Sys | CVLT | xO | Software (Business) | Software |
| NetSuite Inc | N | xN | Software (Business) | Software |
| Telestone Tech | TSTC | O | Telecomm (Cellular) | Telecomm |
| S K TelecomADS | SKM | xN | Telecomm (Cellular) | Telecomm |
| K T Corp ADS | KT | N | Telecomm (Services) | Telecomm |
| Copa Hldgs | CPA | xN | Transportation (Airlines) | Transportation |
| Saia Inc | SAIA | xO | Transportation (Truck) | Transportation |
| Teekay Offshre | TOO | N | Transportation (Ship) | Transportation |
| Con-Way Inc | CNW | xN | Transportation (Truck) | Transportation |
| Sempra Energy | SRE | xN | Utility (Gas) | Utility |
| Empresa NacADS | EOC | N | Utility (Electric) | Utility |
| Telefon MexL | TMX | xN | Utility (Telephone) | Utility |
| Great Plns Pwr | GXP | xN | Utility (Electric) | Utility |
| Allegheny Eny | AYE | xN | Utility (Electric) | Utility |
Stocks that were close to passing net screens but just missed: TSTC (sadly it cannot be run today but did seem close) software errors keep us from running it this morning before publishing time.
U.S. equity markets pushed forward again Friday, erasing the weakness of the previous week. Now, everything but the monthly momentum has turned positive. Even the $RUT is positive on a monthly basis. If we continue to get breadth, we should see new highs. Only time will tell.
The usual suspects are rallying though (utilities, banks, drugs, semiconductor equipment, building (both residential and industrial), financial, internet network and service providers, and REITs). Market breadth seems narrow, but if transports, banks, and semiconductors are rallying, perhaps that is a good economic sign. It is so hard to tell in this environment where the Fed is now considering hiking interest rates, and government wants to tax us to feed the ever increasing entitlement tsunami.
I am still a bit crippled on data with ETFs (and today with new passwords, but life goes on. We will keep moving). Your patience is appreciated.
Here is what passed the neural net screens:
Value/Price est. 7 day ATR %( 7 day ATR)/Close
Nothing today. We will be back on full footing tomorrow. ETFs I hope by end of the week.
Note (O): optionable*
Beta greater than 1.5, Volume greater than 1 million shares on a 50-day simple moving average volume basis.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS on the monthly basis could be tilting higher, but on all but the $RUT, they are still negative. In the daily and weekly swing trading modes, we are bullish again, and if one operates in those timeframes, stick with the trend.
If you have long or short positions, use your head and manage risks and stops. The next few weeks (into early May) will likely determine the course of the rest of the year. Monthly Fibonacci pattern still appear bearish. Only time will tell.
Take care,
DBB
