So Your Sophisticated Short Got Blown Up Or You Were Too Late To Buy The Rally? Well, Join The Club

October 30, 2011

What just happened? In August we were witnessing what looked like (and could still end up like) a cyclical bull market capitulation from the March 9, 2009 lows. Hedge funds and individuals were hustling to short this market with every kind of option spread, index future, inverted ETF, or direct shorting strategy. Well, the ending of this thing panned out about like the ingenious plans of a cartoon coyote having his munitions shack being dragged onto the railroad tracks by a cartoon rodent. Yes, despite all the algorithmic trading schemes and massive hedging, many “super geniuses” got their anterior ends handed to them. Why is that?

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Is It Time To Curb EUR (Your) Enthusiam? We Could See Critical Levels Hit As Early As Tomorrow

October 23, 2011

To be honest, I was neither of fan of this show nor of Seinfeld (though I have let that show grow on me after it left the air). I just needed a homophone for EUR (I figure your would be the closest way to pronounce the group of letters EUR). I do like the Statue of Liberty image though. The scowl on it might be representative of US equity investors next week should what I think might happen actually happens if we see the EURUSD begin to sink.

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Snapshots From The Edge: A Quick Discussion Of $SPX, $GLD, And A Reference To Weight Training Equipment

October 16, 2011

Back in the day before complete streaming, cable, and online media saturation and Steve Jobs was a to-do list of chores to be done by handyman Steve, I used to listen to high school and college football on radio. I cannot remember who gave me this reference, but I think it was at a baseball camp that a friend of mine referred to an announcer as a “homer”. A “homer” is an announcer who can say absolutely nothing negative about a team he is representing on the air. Particularly delusional “homers” ( like one here who broadcasts for a local high school team) thinks his team is absolutely phenomenal in every way, even after it was beaten soundly by a team that is one classification BELOW it in the South Carolina High School Football Association rankings. Those people are in no way objective or have any clue as to how to deal with reality.

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Volatile Markets Are Not A Place For Sloppy Trading – In Praise Of Trade Journals With Annotated Charts

October 13, 2011

One thing that has increased substantially in the last 18 months or more has been volatility in equities AND in forex. I can guarantee that most of you have encountered some difficulties in trading these markets because with every seemingly smooth set up there is a face-ripping counter-move that presses the trade against you or forces you out on a stop. For those who are not used to this set of circumstances, I can only say one thing: GET USED TO IT!

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New Target Low Forecasts for $SPX. The Faster It Moves, The Uglier It Will Get

October 3, 2011

Here is is, short and sweet (depending I guess if you are a bull or a bear. I myself am a buffalo). We did break 1101.54 essentially closed on the lows of the session. That kind of price action typically leads to a continuation of the current trend, meaning that more bearish price action is likely ahead. No one knows that for certain, but it is is a high probability outcome.

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GLD Seems To Have Taken A Nosedive To End All Nosedives. Is Something Different Now? Maybe….Maybe Not. What Could Be Coming Next.

September 24, 2011

I risk putting most of this reading audience to sleep with a discussion of time and price cycles with Fibonacci patterns, but I am going to avoid it and get to the meat of what I see. What I want people to see is that we are facing some unprecedented volatility in precious metals, currencies, equities and almost EVERYTHING ELSE. Calls for gold price bubbles and ends of major trends need to be tempered by the volatility of the economic and market environments. I was going to make an analogy to Shelley Berman’s “drunk walking in an earthquake” stand-up routine, but for once I could not find a YouTube video that contained it. A vast majority of you do not even know who Shelley Berman is. Yes, I am old enough to remember seeing it live, but it makes a perfect point about volatility. It takes a bit of skill to navigate it, assuming one has the risk tolerance to see it through.

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As We Commemorate The 10th Anniversary of 9/11/2001, Are We Witnessing The Collapse of the First Currency Tower (The Euro)?

September 10, 2011

I will not use this blog to commemorate the horrible things that happened 10 years ago tomorrow (9/11/2001), but I would like to you read these two articles located here (the one written by my friend Joe Donohue, Upsidetrader), and this one from the New York Times (make sure to watch the video). Remember never to take a single moment of your life for granted. Thank God that you live in the United States of America (assuming you are a citizen reading this blog post). If you see a U.S. military veteran or active duty soldier, that that person for their service. If you see a first responder, do exactly the same thing. Let’s not forget.

It has been awhile since I wrote anything substantial about the foreign exchange market, so I thought it might be appropriate at this moment to discuss the Euro and the current crisis that seems to be facing the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Eurozone in general with regard to the potential ultimate default of Greece on its sovereign debt. I will approach this for now from the monthly chart perspective (where one can see the clear areas of support and resistance).

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The $SPX Still Looks Bearish, But The Playing Field Is Complicated. Are We Doomed to “Re-Suck-itation”?

September 4, 2011

As is often the case in the realm of daily, weekly, and monthly charts, Fibonacci patterns can sometimes not totally fulfill themselves as they often do in shorter intraday timeframes. Such is the case with the $SPX (The Standard and Poors 500 Stock Index (Cash)). The story still looks bearish, but the outcome could be a little murky. I will do my best to simplify it and not make any mistakes like the bunch represented here. Even they can’t set a negative mood correctly. One does get to learn new words from great wordsmiths like the great Grandpa Jones. Is the $SPX about to re-”suck”-itate (meaning, for my purposes, “head south”) again?

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Dr. Pearlman Gave You The Psychology….I Am Going To Give You The Logic On Gold And Why The Rally Should Continue ($GLD)

August 24, 2011

Phil (whose blog and video blog post are here), did something that even the trading greats like Dennis Gartman did earlier so prematurely. He sold gold at a momentum top (which occurred late last week). As Phil said so accurately on his video, gold really did get ahead of itself. To see this, take a look at my previous blog post on GLD, and see this daily chart.

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Still Trying To Decide How To Refocus This Blog….Suggestions Please

August 21, 2011

It is quite possible that within the next 2 months I may develop a for profit product that looks beyond the 5 to 15 day trade windows for which this blog (and my writing) was originally based on. It could become a technically/fundamentally based product that looks for both momentum, trend, and yield (as we are going to be in the woodshed for awhile on growth until the regulatory and tax situation shakes out a bit more).

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